So what makes THIS fantasy show different? Well, first of all, we don't get paid for our expertise. We're JJ & Tiny Tyler...and we're just two guys with radio backgrounds who needed to give our wives an excuse as to why we spend so much time on Fantasy Football. So, now in our 3rd season as a podcast and carried nationally on over a dozen radio stations including iHeartRadio Talk, we carry the madness over to you. We promise you moderately accurate fantasy advice (we're right more than we're wrong!), a mild level of entertainment and amusement, and at the very least a punching bag for all of your head shaking fantasy mistakes. Wanna ask a question? We happen to be EVERYWHERE. Hit us up on Facebook and Twitter using the links above and we'll help you finish better than last place (that's our way of underpromising and over-delivering). Thanks for listening!
I don't buy rankings. I don't believe them. They're a somewhat useful tool for drafting, and you should definitely use whatever fantasy service you like as a template. But, quite frankly, the best way to win your draft? Do your homework. Don't copy off the smart kid and then get mad that he missed a problem.
Fantasy opinions are just that...opinions. Projections. Educated guesses based on a variety of factors. And so many fantasy players take them as the Bible.
Last season, RGIII, a 9th or 10th-round pick, finished with 40 more fantasy points than Matthew Stafford, a pretty much consensus 1st or 2nd-rounder. Alfred Morris, largely undrafted, finished higher than Ray Rice, a guy who most people had as a 1st or 2nd OVERALL pick. So, if you draft Colin Kaepenrick over Tom Brady because I tell you to, and then Brady throws for 60 touchdowns, don't get mad at me. I'm guessing. Just like anybody else. I would suggest you use this list as a template. If you agree with my logic, great. If you don't, make your own rankings. I assure you, though, that there is nothing more agonizing than trying to figure out whether to rank Ryan Tannehill or Geno Smith higher. There's nothing I hate more. Actually, that's false. I hate asparagus more. Asparagus and rankings. That's the epitome of torture for me.
Anyway, now that I've ranted about how I hate rankings, here's how I rate the 2013 fantasy QBs. I'll highlight a few names that might seem out-of-position and explain my reasoning.
|10||Robert Griffin III||WSH|
Most of my Top 10 is pretty on par with any other fantasy service you might use. They might not be in the same order, but those are the 10 guys you wanna shoot for as a starter in a 10-team league. In fact, even in a deep 16-team league, I think you don't want to get far past the top 12 - as everyone past Eli Manning has some major question marks.
Aaron Rodgers is the consensus #1 QB, and there's good reason why. That being said, I do think Green Bay will rely more on the run this year. Mike McCarthy actually runs the ball more than you think - the Packers were right in the middle of the NFL in terms of pass-to-run ratio last season...but they were mostly unsuccessful. I think the new Packers backfield of Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin will take some pressure off of Rodgers, and probably take away a few TDs. I draft Rodgers as the #1 QB because he's the most "sure bet" of any QB in the draft, but I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't finish as the #1 fantasy QB.
I like Peyton Manning more than Drew Brees for one simple reason - schedule. Both play in pass-friendly offenses, both have a group of monster receivers to throw to. But the Saints play the 3rd toughest scheudule in the NFL, play the 49ers and Seahawks, two games against a decent Atlanta secondary, and also Arizona and St. Louis defenses that will be better than people think. Meanwhile, the Broncos have the easiest schedule in the league, and outside of a Week 16 matchup with the Texans they don't play a pass defense that scares me.
Some might be surprised that I have Colin Kaepernick as my #4 QB ahead of Brady and Newton. Kaepernick and Newton are pretty neck and neck, I give the edge to Kap though based on the fact that the Panthers continue to completely ignore their team's needs and refuse to give Cam any tools to work with. Brady should be solid, but this is going to be the toughest season he's had - think Peyton Manning in his last year in Indy. Brady has no one...and I mean NO ONE to throw to. No significant tight end, no Wes Welker...and don't think for a minute that Danny Amendola is filling that role...it's gonna be rough sailing. And I think New England will rely even more on Stevan Ridley and the run game than they have in years past.
RGIII of course has top 5 upside, but I don't expect him to play 16 games and I think that Mike Shanahan, not wanting to risk injuring his franchise QB, will cut way down on the number of designed run plays - you even saw that trend late in 2012 as Griffin went from an average of 6-7 designed run plays per game to 4 per game before the injury.
In the next tier, those guys 11-20, there's 2 names that stick out to me. One is Andrew Luck, who I considered moving into my Top 10. Luck was a Top 10 guy last year, and if he improves and cuts down on the interceptions he's sniffing Top 5. That being said, I don't think the Colts will rely on Luck to run the ball inside the 10 as much as he did last year with the addition of Ahmad Bradshaw and his clunky foot. So Luck's 5 rushing TDs is probably a little high.
The other name that I have higher than most is Michael Vick. Yes, he's 33. Yes, he's undersized. Yes, he, by many accounts, is a terrible human being. And maybe you still hold the dog thing against him, and I can't blame you for that. My wife wouldn't draft Vick in the 15th round because of it. But, straight up, if you want a high-upside value pick in the late rounds, Vick might be your guy. Chip Kelly's offense is DESIGNED for the personnel in the Eagles' offense. Look at his teams at Oregon. They all have the same traits - undersized mobile QB, big-time downfield threat, speedy running game...it's all there in Philly, and I think Vick could have a bit of a renaissance. Not a 2010 renaissance, but certainly better than his 140 fantasy points last season.
If you're really deep here, I think Alex Smith and Carson Palmer are great late-round picks in a deeper league, maybe as insurance for an injury-prone starter such as Stafford or RGIII. Palmer will throw 20 picks. He'll also throw for a ton of yards, a lot of TDs to Larry Fitzgerald, and that's a team that doesn't have a great running game to fall back on, so Palmer will have to carry the load. Smith gets picked on a lot, and I don't think he's a big-time fantasy quarterback, but I do like him in Andy Reid's offense, and I think he's got some good personnel to match his skill set. I could see Jamaal Charles having a big year catching the ball out of the backfield, and Smith being a steady, serviceable fantasy player.
Guys that I hate? Tony Romo...well, because he's Tony Romo. Jay Cutler....because I don't care who the coach is, Cutler will get sacked 5 times a game, get pissed off, throw 2 picks, and then hurt a pinky. Christian Ponder...because Percy Harvin is gone, and because you've now added a wide receiver in Greg Jennings that's a big downfield threat...with a quarterback that had the worst completion percentage in the NFL on deep balls last year. Not a good match.
And, just because I'm obligated by law to talk about it, if you're really solid at QB (you have a top 5 guy), I'm not afraid to take Tim Tebow in a late round, depending on the flex rules in your league. He won't play QB, but don't think that Bill Belichick won't find a way to use him in that offense, especially with the dearth of available receiving options. Tebow could easily be a tight end or an H-back, and there could be some points there.
So, there ya go...rankings. For the first and last time this year. We'll go into these a little bit further on the podacst on August 7th, but if you're more of a visual learner hopefully you enjoyed my last 1300 words before you return to your visuals of Icelandic supermodels wearing strategically placed fruit. I'm not actually sure if that's a real thing, but with all the weird websites out there, it wouldn't surprise me. Pull it up on the Google Machine. Let us know what you get. Until next time, kids - happy yelling!